Lowy Institute of International Policy

22 August 2011

We'll be speaking next Tuesday to Tang Qifang,
a Southeast Asia specialist at the foreign ministry-affiliated China
Institute of International Studies. We invite readers to submit
questions for the interview at blogeditor@lowyinstitute.org .

Southeast
Asia is China's natural backyard. China has extensive land borders
with the region, and depends upon Southeast Asia's sea corridors for
economic power and security interests. China's energy supplies depend
on shipments of oil through the Strait of Malacca, while its naval
ambitions rely on the ability to operate in the South China Sea.

China
has been accused of economic imperialism by its Southeast Asian
neighbours. Over the last year, an increasingly self-confident China
has become more assertive over its 'rights and interests', getting into a
series of spats with its neighbours, such as the recent standoff with
Vietnam over the two countries' unresolved maritime border in the South
China Sea. There's an ongoing debate among China-watchers over whether
the South China Sea has been declared a 'core interest', a phrase that
implies a willingness to go to war.

As
China's 'peaceful intentions' have come to seem open to doubt,
Southeast Asian nations have become eager to hedge their bets, giving
other powers like the US and India a chance to bolster their presence in
the region.

At
the intersection of three major powers, Southeast Asia promises to be
one of the most strategically important regions of the 21st century.
Whether it will be, as Robert Kaplan recently argued in Foreign Policy, 'the future of conflict' depends to a large extent on the stance that China takes.